Analyzing Game 1 of the WNBA Finals

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SAN FRANCISCO — You’re probably feeling pretty annoyed right now if you’re the Dream, having lost a Game 1 in which you led for 75% of it, and had the Valkyries offense looking like a fish flopping on land.

In fact, the half-court offense appeared so halting and uncertain about where any openings were that I had to ask a couple of Bay Area journalists after the game what the Valkyries’ strategy on offense even is.

They said it was waiting for the Dream to make a mistake.

The problem with that is that the Dream don’t make very many. They’re long, quick, and in each other’s gaps. As a result, so many Valkyries possessions ended in a desperation heave, or a forced drive into Dream defenders that hadn’t been shifted.

The Dream enjoyed a lead for much of the third quarter until a Valkyries run — which included a Kiah Stokes tip-in, an unlikely roll on a Kaila Charles’ three-point shot, and a breakdown from the Dream leaving Charles wide open for a layup — gave them the lead.

Even through his normal stoicism, you could tell Dream coach Karl Smesko was very attuned to how luck and tiny mistakes swung the game in the Valkyries favor.

“I thought our team defended excellent, but when a game is this close even a couple breakdowns can make the difference,” Smesko said.

The problem that Smesko likely spent Sunday mulling over is that the Dream’s half-court offense was really no better than the Valkyries’. Though I’m no expert on the the Dream either, I can tell you that the one thing every half-court offense is supposed to do — swing the ball from one side of the court to the other — did not happen. Like the Valkyries, it was a lot of one pass then fire away.

“We had a couple of dry spells where we just weren’t working together as well as you need to against this [Valkyries] defense,” Smesko said.

They also turned their back on what had been working from the jump. Forward Angel Reese built them a lead in the first quarter, then only touched the ball in scoring position twice in the second half.

“Maybe that was just on me,” Reese said. “I wasn’t aggressive enough with the ball and trying to get the ball and to get to spots.
So definitely going to do a better job of that next game.”

Smesko also took responsibility, saying they need to do a better job getting the ball to Reese.

The bright side is that “giving Reese the ball” and actually moving the ball from side to side don’t really seem that difficult to correct heading into Game 2. The other bright side is that despite Dream superstar Rhyne Howard finishing with a measly 12 points, they still only lost by four. They also had two wide-open shots at the end that could have won the game.

“Naz [Hillmon] had a good look at three,” Smesko said. “Rhyne had a good look at three. We knock down either of those we’re not talking about whatever mistakes we made.

“But that’s what this game comes down to. You have two shots go in and out. At some point in the game, they bank in a three. We were right there. So that’s why it hurts a little bit. But it also motivates us. We know we’re capable of doing.”

This WNBA Finals represents a changing of the guard. The Valkyries and Dream knocked off the Aces and the Liberty, super-teams that have dominated the last five years, and they reached the pinnacle in large part by feasting on other teams’ mistakes.

Which is why Game 1 felt like such a staring contest; there just aren’t very many mistakes left to be mined.